L’Italia a junk (CCC+) per Egan-Jones: 22% le probabilità di un default nel 2013

Riporto la notizia del taglio a CCC+ dell’Italia da parte dell’agenzia di rating Egan-Jones… Ora: da sempre questi sono disallineati rispetto alle tre sorelle maggiori, ma vuoi proprio dire che mettano i voti ai paesi tirando la monetina? Un rating a CCC+ significa poco più di un 20% di probabilità di fare default entro un anno…

Ma le 13esime dei dipendenti pubblici sono salve: tutto a posto… A proposito: se avete affittato un immobile allo Stato, con l’ultimo decreto di luglio l’affitto si abbassa d’ufficio del 15%… Io sarei disposto a scontargli anche il 30% se solo rientrasse dei 9 mesi di affitti arretrati non pagati e liberasse i locali… (e sai quante imprese che hanno crediti verso lo stato bloccati anche da un paio d’anni sarebbero felici di vederlo rientrare stralciandone un 30%?). Egan-Jones queste robe non le sa… altrimenti altro che CCC+… questo stato è già insolvente da due anni, ma finchè si pagano i dipendenti pubblici e le pensioni va tutto bene… I fornitori puoi anche non pagarli e poco importa se mentre aspettano, chiudono… È il rischio di impresa, ci dicono…

Egan-Jones slashed its rating on Italy further into junk status Wednesday.

The ratings company cut its rating on the euro-zone member to triple-C-plus from single-B-plus, a three-notch cut. Egan-Jones downgraded Italy as recently as June 1 and hasn’t rated the country as investment grade since July 2011.

Egan-Jones holds a harsher view on Italy, as it does on other euro-zone countries, than the firm’s three larger competitors. Fitch Ratings, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service all rate Italy as investment grade and have negative outlooks on their respective ratings.

In its downgrade, Egan-Jones predicts Italy’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio will exceed 125% by the end of the year as its annual deficit nears 4% of GDP. Like Spain, Italy is also facing the prospect of needing to support its beleaguered banking system. Given the country’s weak condition, “Italy’s independent ability to support its banks is questionable,” Egan-Jones wrote in the downgrade report.

The ratings firm said it expects Italy to face rising yields and restricted access to bond markets through 2013 without external support.

The yield on Italian debt has been rising steadily in recent weeks–though it fell Wednesday–as fears about the country and region’s debt problems once again grow. The yield on 10-year Italian debt was 6.44% Wednesday, according to Tradeweb.

Egan-Jones said it now predicts Italy’s chance of default in the next year is 22%. Its projected rating, a view of where the rating could eventually settle, is single-C-plus.

Egan-Jones has been one of the most aggressive ratings firms in slashing its views on European sovereign debt. Egan-Jones cut its rating on Spain on Friday for the sixth time since mid-April.

While the larger ratings firms have regularly slashed their ratings on euro-zone members, the pace and size of those downgrades haven’t been as large as Egan-Jones’ actions. Moody’s earlier this week, for example, placed a negative outlook on Germany’s triple-A rating. Egan-Jones downgraded Germany to single-A-plus a month ago.

Luca Giusti
www.qtlab.ch
www.lucagiusti.it

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